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Political dynamics

By Bruce Bartlett
June 13, 2007

The immigration bill may be dead for now, but the political forces behind it have not gone away. Those will continue to impact both major political parties for many years to come.
    The basic force is that Hispanics are increasing as a share of the population. The latest data from the Census Bureau show there were 44.3 million Hispanics in the United States as of July 1, 2006, constituting 14.8 percent of the population. They are the fastest growing ethnic group, accounting for about half the growth of population during the previous year -- 1.4 million out of a total increase of 2.9 million.
    It is extremely unlikely that the number of Hispanics or their percentage of the population will decline any time in the near future. Even if the 12 million illegals among them are not granted amnesty, the likelihood of mass deportation is virtually nonexistent. Like or not, they are here to stay and all we are really negotiating is the terms.
    Once one accepts that this country will have a large and expanding Hispanic population for many years to come, one has to consider the political implications. It doesn't really matter that those here illegally cannot vote, because their children will. The 14th amendment to the Constitution guarantees that everyone born on American soil is a citizen, with all the rights that confers, and it is extremely unlikely this provision will ever be repealed. Therefore, we must accept the reality that Hispanics will be a rising political force whether or not amnesty is conferred and border enforcement is increased.
    According to exit surveys from the last several national elections, Hispanics vote Democratic over Republican by about a 7-to-3 margin. There is no reason to think this will change any time soon. Consequently, the more Hispanics there are in this country, the better it is for the Democrats.
    The White House has deluded itself into thinking Republicans may be able to win a larger percentage of Hispanic voters by championing immigration reform. However, as Heather MacDonald of the Manhattan Institute points out, there was no wave of increased Hispanic support for Republicans after the 1986 amnesty supported by Ronald Reagan.
    Anyway, even if immigration reform gets enacted on George W. Bush's watch, Democrats will get the vast bulk of the credit since most of the opposition comes from Republicans in Congress.
    An article in Sunday's New York Times notes that the rising importance of Hispanics has changed the dynamics of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. All the major candidates are carefully courting the Hispanic vote with ads in Spanish-language media outlets and other outreach efforts.
    One inevitable consequence is that other groups will get less attention in the future. The most important of these are blacks, who have been the Democrats' favorite minority since the 1960s. But they are now the second-largest minority group in America with a population of 40.2 million. And their growth rate is less than half that of Hispanics.
    As Hispanics grow in political importance, blacks necessarily will see their position within the Democratic Party decline. When the next Democratic president is elected, more appointments will go to Hispanics, fewer to blacks. Hispanic concerns about issues such as trade with Mexico will take precedence over black concerns about jobs, and so on.
    The reality is that blacks and Hispanics are natural political rivals. Since both groups belong overwhelmingly to the Democratic Party, one's gains will tend to come at the other's expense. This is true in other areas as well. Blacks increasingly complain that Hispanics push them out of public housing, take their jobs, and occupy minority slots in university admissions.
    This is not new. As long ago as 1881, Frederick Douglass, the great black leader, complained blacks suffered from immigration. "Every hour sees us elbowed out of some employment to make room for some newly arrived emigrant from the Emerald Isle, whose hunger and color entitle him to special favor," he wrote.
    Hispanics have replaced the Irish of Douglass' day, but the principle still applies. Harvard economist George Borjas has shown increased immigration tends to reduce blacks' wages and jobs. May's unemployment rate was 8.1 percent for blacks, but only 5.3 percent for Hispanics.
    For these reasons, I think blacks should reconsider their blind loyalty to the Democratic Party. Republicans should recognize blacks' concerns about immigration give their party a far better chance of attracting their votes than those of Hispanics. Once Mr. Bush is gone, the party will almost certainly become overwhelmingly anti-immigrant. Thus there is a strong mutual interest that could foster a new alliance between blacks and Republicans.
    
    Bruce Bartlett is a nationally syndicated columnist.
    

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